What investors and the Federal Reserve will look for in the jobs report

Employment report: the figures to take into account

Wall Street, the White House and the Federal Reserve will be watching Friday’s jobs report for signs of how the labor market is performing. The figures may also offer clues about the central bank’s next move on interest rates.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the nonfarm payrolls figure at 8:30 a.m. ET. These are the data points to consider:

160,000. economists respondent FactSet expects the report to show that employers added about 160,000 jobs last month, a drop from the 199,000 jobs created in November. They also forecast that the unemployment rate rose to 3.8 percent in December, from 3.7 percent the previous month.

2.7 million. If those predictions are correct, total hiring in 2023 would amount to about 2.7 milliona good result in a year marked by strikes and layoffs by large companies in multiple sectors. Looking ahead to an election year, it is a fact that President Biden is expected to trumpet to voters who are not yet convinced of his handling of the economy.

3.9 percent. The big number investors will be watching is wage growth. The consensus estimate is that average hourly wages grew an annualized 3.9 percent last month, roughly in line with November numbers.

A hot number here could spook markets. Wall Street is divided over how the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy will play out this year. The central bank has signaled three cuts could come, but officials have since He warned that a resurgence in inflation could stop that moderate turn and even reopen the door to rate increases.

1.7 percent. The last two jobs reports have been good for investors, and the S&P 500 rose after the data was released. Market watchers expect a similar performance. The benchmark is on a four-day losing streak and has lost 1.7 percent in 2024.

THIS IS WHAT’S HAPPENING

Foreign governments paid millions to Donald Trump’s companies during his presidency. A report by House Democrats found that Trump’s companies received at least $7.8 million, most of it from China. Democrats argued that the findings, drawn from court documents, show that the former president engaged in the type of activity Republicans accuse the Biden family of; Republican lawmakers and Trump’s son, Eric, dismissed the report.

Eurozone inflation rises. Prices in the region of 20 countries rose 2.9 percent in December, ending months of declines. The increase raised new questions about when the European Central Bank would begin cutting interest rates. Relatedly, large French retailer Carrefour stopped selling PepsiCo products at “unacceptably high” prices.

Business Insider accuses Bill Ackman’s wife of plagiarism. The post said that Neri Oxman, a prominent academic and architect who previously taught at MIT, had not used the quotes. around various passages in his 2010 doctoral thesis that were taken from other articles, although he cited his sources. Oxman published in X that he was substantiating the allegations, apologized and would request any necessary corrections; Ackman, who was a leading advocate for the removal of Claudine Gay as president of Harvard over accusations of plagiarism, aware in support of his wife.

Hedge fund winners (and losers) in 2023

The past year presented challenges for hedge fund magnates, given volatility in bond markets, economic uncertainty and the regional U.S. banking crisis. But some of the industry’s biggest players were still able to make money.

2023 turned out to be a good, if not stellar, year for large hedge funds. Take Citadel, one of the industry’s top performers, which fell well short of the 38 percent profit it reported for 2022. (That said, it’s returning $7 billion to investors.)

The outlook was bleaker for the industry as a whole. Hedge funds returned an average of 4.5 percent, according to data provider HFR. And they were vastly outperformed by the S&P 500, which gained 24 percent.

Here’s how some hedge fund titans fared in 2023, according to media reports:

Trying not to kill the Messenger

The Messenger was founded last year by veteran media mogul Jimmy Finkelstein with $50 million in funding to become the next big name in digital news publishing.

But the startup is now under severe financial pressure and looking to raise more money, the Times’ Ben Mullin reports, as its business model soured and it ran into editorial difficulties.

Among The Messenger’s problems:

The site generated about $3 million in revenue last year and lost $38 million as costs rose, including $8 million from office leases in New York, Washington and West Palm Beach, Florida.
It has told potential investors that it had only $1.8 million in cash on hand at the end of December.
It is laying off two dozen employees, including journalists who cover national politics, science and technology.

A spokeswoman for The Messenger said the company was not in a “desperate” situation and said it posted as much revenue in January as it did in all of 2023. She added that the company had already raised more than $10 million in new financing. round.

What went wrong: The Messenger is committed to digital advertising despite the fact that this market remains in turmoil. It also bet that it could attract large amounts of traffic by optimizing for search, which hasn’t worked as well as the company had hoped. (It’s gaining some momentum, having attracted 24 million visitors in December, a 24 percent month-over-month increase.)

A highly regarded political editor resigned last year after clashing with a senior colleague, while some reporters have bristled at demands to write stories based on competitors’ stories.

The Messenger is now in talks with conservative investors to sell a majority stake. according axios. Among them is Omeed Malik, a financier who has Backed Tucker Carlson’s new media company, and George Farmer, former CEO of the right-wing social media site Parler.

Investors recently met with Finkelstein at Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate to discuss a $30 million deal for 51 percent of the company that valued The Messenger at $60 million.

“YO think He wasn’t actually torturing any poor AI artist who might suffer. But it is not a good sign for our civilization that we seem to have no way of knowing for sure.”

— Eliezer Yudkowskyan AI researcher who pressured ChatGPT to produce more “normal” images after it created absurd images and resisted some of his requests.

Meet the “CEO” of Hamas

As the war between Israel and Hamas rages on, more attention has been paid to how the Islamist group finances its military operations, including the October 7 attacks.

This is due in part to Zaher Jabarin, who over several years built a financial network throughout the Middle East to secure funds for Hamas. (A former Israeli security official called him the “CEO” of Hamas.) The Wall Street Journal takes a Look closely at Jabarinwho operates out of an office building in Istanbul and says he is not part of the militant wing of Hamas nor involved in raising money for the group:

Jabarin, working closely with other Hamas officials, developed a real estate portfolio in the country, which made up the bulk of his assets worth $500 million globally, the United States said a few years later. It included stakes in companies based in Algeria and the United Arab Emirates, which did not respond to requests for comment.

The most prominent asset was the real estate developer Trend GYO. It is listed on the Turkish stock exchange and is 75% owned by Hamas front men, according to the United States, which sanctioned the company in May 2022.

According to US officials, the Turkish government granted one of Trend’s founders citizenship and a new name. Hamas officials based in Turkey have opened Turkish bank accounts to move cash and transfer it to agents in the West Bank, they said.

In a statement, Trend said it did not know Hamas or people associated with the group.

In other Middle East news: Secretary of State Antony Blinken will begin another diplomatic tour of the region. Here’s why the oil industry has largely ignored threats to shipping in the Red Sea. And McDonald’s CEO Chris Kempczinski said the war “and associated misinformation” was having a “significant business impact” in several of its markets.

FAST READING

Offers

A group that includes Jeff Bezos and Nvidia has invested $74 million in AI Perplexity with a valuation of $520 million, betting that the new search company can steal market share from Google. (WSJ)
Deutsche Bank has hired Alison Harding-Jones, Citigroup’s former mergers and acquisitions firm. head for Europe, the Middle East and Asia, as its global head of mergers and acquisitions. (FOOT)
american sports, the China-backed group that makes Wilson tennis rackets and Salomon hiking boots, has filed to go public in the US, reportedly eyeing a valuation of $10 billion. (Bloomberg)

Policy

Names that float for a possible Nikki Haley administration They include Gary Cohn, former chairman of Goldman Sachs, as Treasury secretary and Dina Powell, a former top executive at Goldman, as chief of staff. (The messenger)
Donald Trump met with Teamsters boss Sean O’Brien as the former president and President Biden compete for union support. (NY)
SpaceX sued the National Labor Relations Board a day after the agency accused it of illegally laying off employees, arguing that the regulator operates unconstitutionally. (Political)

The best of the rest

A trial will begin next week over a Russian oligarch’s claim that auction house Sotheby’s was complicit in a scheme to defraud him out of millions through overinflated art sales. (NY)
Social media influencers are concerned that AI could cost them valuable brand associationsbut there are reasons to believe that those fears are exaggerated. (FT, Business Insider)
BlackRock has hired Leigh Farris, former head of communications at Carlyle Group, as head of global communications; Carlyle named Meg Starr, who recently led its ESG efforts, as global head of corporate affairs. (Reuters, Axios)

We would like to receive your comments! Email your ideas and suggestions to dealbook@nytimes.com.